Coping with climate change

The range of land use systems, and the impacts that may be evaluated, have been greatly expanded by the integration of the multi-crop simulation system CropSyst (Stöckle, et. al. 2000) with the DSS. This development has been conducted in collaboration with the developers of CropSyst at Washington State University (WSU). A principal collaborator in the development of CropSyst is the research group led by Dr. M. Donatelli of the Research Institute for Industrial Crops (ISCI), Bologna, Italy. This group has considerable experience in the application of CropSyst in a European context particularly in the testing of the implications of climate change on cropping systems. ISCI-Agronomy is also involved in developing software tools for agrometeorology and agricultural modelling, including reusable components. ISCI-Agronomy is one of the coordinators of an Expression of Interest presented to the EU (Future of the Land: Linking Science and Society) to develop the system SEAMLESS (A System for Environmental and Agro-ecological Modelling; Linking European Science and Society) within the EU 6th Research Framework Program.

    

The Science and Quality of Life: Coping with Climate Change programme provides an opportunity to develop collaborative links between the Macaulay Institute, with an experienced DSS development team, and ISCI, with internationally recognised expertise in the modelling of climate and climate change scenarios. The collaboration will be initiated by using the Macaulay Institute's DSS to explore the risks from climate change to marginal agricultural systems as exemplified by two case studies, one in the UK and the other in Italy. The contrasting physical and cultural character of the UK and Italian sites will test the robustness of the DSS component models. Furthermore, conducting case studies in each country will provide invaluable experience in overcoming the scientific and practical problems in extending application domains. The case studies will also demonstrate the benefits of integrating climate modelling with DSS to assess strategies for coping with climate change.

Scientific Objectives

The objective of the project will be to use the DSS tools to explore the impact of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predicted climate changes for two case study sites. The UK site is in the Scottish uplands where the potential impact of wetter winters may have a severe impact on an already financially marginal agricultural system. The Italian site is near Siena where warmer, drier summers may mean unsustainable irrigation requirements. In both cases more frequent storms may have significant, if entirely different impacts. The output from the analysis will be a quantification of the additional risks that climatic change may have for financial, social and environmental viability and, where possible, indications of management options that may ameliorate these risks.

ISCI Collaborators

Dr. Gianni Bellocchi, PhD in Agronomy, collaborator to ISCI, expertise in crop/cropping systems modelling, statistics, agrometeorology. Dr Bellocchi is a consultant for projects related to crop/cropping systems modeling, affiliated with the Agronomy Section of ISCI, Bologna, working with Dr. Marcello Donatelli. Dr. Bellocchi has a degree in Agriculture (1993) from the University of Pisa, and a PhD in agriculture and environment from the Sant'Anna Advanced School for University Studies and Doctoral Research of Pisa. His research activity has mainly been based at the Department of Agronomy and Agro-Ecosystem Management of Pisa and the Research Institute for Industrial Crops of Bologna. He was a visiting researcher to the former Research Institute for Agrobiology and Soil Fertility (Wageningen, The Netherlands) and the Biological Systems Engineering Department-Washington State University (Pullman WA, USA). He has also cooperated with the Department of Crop Biology of Pisa, the Department for Cultivation and Protection of Woody Species of Pisa, the Research Centre for Crop Productions of Region Emilia-Romagna, the Institute for Arable Crops Research of Rothamsted (United Kingdom) and the International Centre for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies of Montpellier (France). His research activity is mainly focused on statistical methodologies, cropping systems analysis by means of modelling techniques, model development in agro-meteorology, and model application to environmental impact and climate change. He contributed to the Italian projects SIC, IraCA, PANDA and SIPEAA, and the European Union projects LASSEE, POM and CAP-STRAT. He participated in the development and evaluation of the following software tools: ClimGen, CropSyst, IRENE, RadEst, CropPheno_CSDLL, ET_CSDLL, IRENE_DLL, and PAR_CSDLL. He is member of the European Society for Agronomy and the Italian Society for Agronomy.

Dr. Gianni Fila, PhD in Tree Physiology, research scientist, Research Institute for Industrial Crops, expertise in crop/cropping systems modelling, software development, crop physiology.

The British Council

The British Council promotes cultural, educational and technical cooperation between Britain and other countries. Its work is designed to develop world-wide partnerships and improve international understanding. It operates in over 100 countries and provides an unrivalled network of contacts with government departments, universities, embassies, professional bodies, arts organisations and business and industry in Britain and overseas.

For more information about this project contact the LADSS team.