AAIR Project No PL 94-2392


Technical Annex for the AAIR Project


SILVICULTURAL STRATEGIES FOR PREDICTING DAMAGE TO FORESTS FROM WIND, FIRE AND SNOW:

INTEGRATING TREE, SITE AND STAND PROPERTIES WITH GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS TO EVALUATE OPTIONS FOR FOREST MANAGEMENT



Contents: Deliverables aimed both by individual tasks and by each participants, and deliverables and milestones aimed as whole project within 1995-1997. Updated 20th September, 1997.

Participants are asked to send updates as they occur to:

Heli hpeltola@forest.joensuu.fi


1. TASK DELIVERABLES

Task 1: Project Planning

Participants: 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07

1. Sub-task 1 provides formally documented details of what information is required where, by whom and by when, with details on data transfer protocols and terminology. done

2. A Product Description is produced for each component Task of the project. done

3. Documentation on data standards for transfer of textual, statistical and digital data; on data conversion and communications and on the nature of communications between Participants (for example, file transfer protocol across Internet) and data formats. done

4. Sub-task 1.2 provides guidance on the levels of certainty required and anticipated for and from each Task in the project. done


Task 2: Quantification of Component Factors Controlling Snow, Wind and Fire Damage

Participants: 01, 02, 03, 04, 06, 07

1. Wood strength properties of spruce, Scots pine and birch in relation to wind and snow damage, and silvicultural practices. P02; done

2. Data base of all available tree pulling experiments in agreed format. P04, P01; done

3. Method for applying results of static pulling experiments to the understanding of damage due to dynamic loading. P08; P04, done

4. Method for accounting for the effects of root fatigue following repetitive loading. P02/P08; done

5. Pure spectral signature data set for fire risk. P03, done


Task 3: Tree-level Models to Predict Circumstances for Damage

Participants: 01, 03, 04, and 07

1. Mathematical relationships to calculate the critical wind speed and snow loading required to damage individual trees. These relationships will be dependent on tree species, tree characteristics and site characteristics. P01, P04, P07;done

2. LAI estimation models. P03; done



Task 4: Defining Stand-level Variability to Permit Application of Tree-level Models

Participants: 01, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07

1. Methods for incorporating and variability into overall model and to modify relationships developed for single trees. P04; done

2. A method for describing variation in tree heights across stands. P05; month 25; done

3. Method for spectral unmixing of tree canopy and understorey spectroradiometer signals. P03; month 28; done


Task 5: Regional-level Snow, Wind and Fire Risk Models

Participants: 01, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07

1. A working method for predicting wind and snow at regional levels. P04, P05; month 24; done

2. Error estimates for wind and snow predictions P04; P05;done

3. Spatial datasets and geographic database for each site. P01, P03, P04; done

4. Satellite imagery prepared for use in Task 6 P01; done

5. Fuel type maps P03; done

6. Maps of vegetation structure for test sites P03; done

7. Fuel hazard maps P03; month 36; to be completed month 33

8. Regional level snow, wind and fire risk models P01, P03, P04, P07; to be completed month 33-34. Snow and wind done.



Task 6: Integrating Components from Tree/Stand Regional-level to Produce a Unified risk Model

Participants: 01, 05, 07

The output from Task 6 is a framework for the component models to be selected and run on available data. An output will be a means for running the models and testing them in Task 7. Further, one output will be an integrated system of GIS and wind damage month 33; to be completed



Task 7: Testing models against Independent Data and Outlining Implications for Silvicultural Strategies

Participants: 01, 03, 04, 06, 07

1. Statement of success of models P0*; month 33; to be completed

2. Recommendations for improving the models P0*; to be completed month 33-34

3. Limitations of the extent of validity of models P0*; to be completed month 33-36

4. Example of damage minimising strategy P0*; to be completed month 33-36



TASK 8: Final Products, Documentation and Identification of New Opportunities

Participants: 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07

Procedures to implement the research findings in selection silvicultural strategies in different countries, pieces of software, final reports of special tasks, final report of the total project. month 36; to be completed



2. PARTICIPANT DELIVERABLES done or to be completed within 30 months

Participant 01:

1. Formatted added tree pulling database to the existing database done

2. Values for the critical parameters required to support the improvement of existing mechanistic model from tree pulling experiments and measurements of wind speed and tree movement done

3. Improved mechanistic model for wind and snow damage for single trees done

4. Relationships for how wind loading on trees depends on the trees position within a stand to distance from stand edge, width of upwind gaps, tree density and tree height done

5. Compilation of geographical database done

6. Integration of wind and snow damage model with GIS, standwise risk assessment of wind and snow damage for the test areas in Finland

month 32, to be completed

7. Satellite image based method for detecting wind damage done

8. Evaluation of the risk model in Finnish test site month 36, to be completed within 33

PARTICIPANT 02:

1. Data sets and correlations on crown architecture and taper indices linked to wind damage for Spruce and Scots pine for calibrating models

done.

2. Data sets and correlations in basic wood properties between trees which have been broken, uprooted and those which are still standing for calibrating models done.

3. Data sets of turning moments in spruce trees during storm conditions in relation to wind speed and soil pore water pressure for calibrating models month 27; to be completed.

4. Analysis of the above data in terms of prevailing silvicultural practices month 27; done.

PARTICIPANT 03:

1. Fuel type maps done.

2. Maps of vegetation structure for test sites done.

3. Fuel hazard maps month 36; to be completed.

4. Regional level fire risk models month 36; to be completed.

PARTICIPANT 06:

1. Data for vegetation characteristics controlling fire damage done

2. Data for preparation of knowledge base for fuel hazard mapping done



PARTICIPANT 04:

1. Tree pulling database already available to agreed format done

2. Empirical mathematical relationships for critical wind speed required to damage single trees done

3. Mathematical relationships relating tree position in stand to wind loading done

4. Recommended method for calculating extreme wind speed probability in complex terrain done

5. Wind Monitoring Areas database in agreed format done

6. Assessment of the success of the wind risk component of the overall model under British conditions month 33; to be completed

7. Tree height surfaces from digital photogrammetry - a method written up as a paper done

PARTICIPANT 05:

1. Formally documented details of what information is required where by whom and by when, with details on data transfer protocols and terminology. A product description is produced for each component Task of the project. Documentation on data standards for textual, statistical and digital data done

2. Guidance on the levels of certainty required and anticipated for and from each task done

3. Derived height dataset of test forest stand in the U.K. done

4. Derived wind and snow climatology surfaces done

5. Geographical database for test sites monitor area in the U.K. done

6. Literature review of available digital data relevant to the study done

7. Framework for the component models to be selected and run on available data ; done

8. A World Wide Web site for dissemination of project result month 36; to be completed

9. A report on the uncertainty estimates for risk maps for

each test site month 30; to be completed

PARTICIPANT 07:

1. Tree characteristics data base on wind and snow damage to agreed format done

2. Mathematical relationships predicting wind and snow damage to single trees done

3. Mathematical relationships for wind and snow damage variability within stands done

4. Formatted Monitoring Area database done

5. Assessment of the wind and snow risk component of the overall model in Swedish conditions done

3. WHOLE PROJECT

3.1. MILESTONES

1. Design plan for project done

2. Value of basic wood properties P02; done

3. Formatted tree pulling database P04, P01; done

4. Knowledge base information system P0*; done

5. Tree characteristics data base on snow damage P07; done

6. End of field data collection for fire risk model P03; done

7. Spatial datasets and geographic database for each site P01, P03, P04, P05; done

8. Formatted Monitoring Area database P0*; done

9. Height surface for UK test site P05; done

10. Mathematical relationships for wind and snow damage for single trees P01, P04, P07; done

11. A working method for predicting wind and snow at regional levels P04; P07; done

12. Agreed method for predicting wind speed linking to extreme wind climatology P04; done

13. Framework for component models P05; done

14. Finalized knowledge base system for fuel hazard mapping P03; to be completed month 33-34

15. Regional level snow, wind and fire risk models P01, P03, P04, P07; month 34; to be completed

16. Integration of mechanistic wind and snow damage model with GIS, standwise risk assessment of wind and snow damage for the test areas in Finland P01; month 32; to be completed

17. End the setup of spectral unmixing methodology P03; done

18. Assessment of the wind damage model against detected wind damage under Finnish conditions P01; month 29; to be completed 32-33

19. Assessment of the wind risk component of the overall model under British conditions P04; month 33; to be completed

20. Assessment of the snow and wind risk component of the overall model under Swedish conditions P07; done

21. End of fire risk model generation, conclusion of risk model test month 34, P03; to be completed

22. Assessment of the fire risk component of the overall model under Portuguese conditions P03; month 33; to be completed

23. Error estimates for wind and snow predictions P04; month 30; to be completed 32-33

24. Fuel type maps P03; month 36; done

25. Maps of vegetation structure for test sites P03; month 36; to be completed month 33-34

26. Fuel hazard maps P03; month 36; to be completed month 33-34

27. World Wide Web site for information dissemination P05; done

28. Summary report of the Project P0*; month 36; to be completed

3.2. DELIVERABLES

1. Design plan for project P05; done

2. Formatted tree pulling database P01, P04; done

3. Tree characteristics data base on snow damage done

4. Spatial datasets and geographic database for each site P0*, done

5. Formatted Monitoring Area database P0*; done

6. Height surface for UK test sites P05; done

7. Mathematical relationships for wind and snow damage for single trees P01, P04, P07; done

8. A working method for predicting wind and snow at regional levels P05; done

9. Agreed method for predicting wind speed and linking to extreme wind climatology P04; done

10. Framework for component models P05; done

11. Pure spectral signature data set P03; done

12. LAI models P03; done

13. Geographic data sets for study areas P01, P03, P04, P05; done

14. Integration of components from Tree/Stand Regional Level for a unified risk model P0*; month 36; to be completed

15. Spectral unmixing methodology P03; done

16. Assessment of the success of the wind and snow damage model under Finnish conditions P01; month 32; to be completed

17. Functional/structural vegetation classification P03; done

18. Detected wind damages under Finnish conditions P01; done

19. Regional classification of fuel types P03; month 28; to be completed

20. Assessment of the wind risk component of the overall model under British conditions P04; month 33; to be completed

21. Assessment of the snow and wind risk component of the overall model under Swedish conditions P07; done

22. Assessment of the success of the fire risk component of the overall model under Portuguese conditions P03; month 33; to be completed

23. Knowledge based system for fuel hazard mapping P03; month 32; to be completed

24. Error estimates for wind and snow predictions P0*; month 36; to be completed

25. Fuel type maps P03; done

26. Maps of vegetation structure for test sites P03; done

27. Fuel hazard maps P03; month 32; to be completed

28. Regional level snow, wind and fire risk models P01, P03, P04, P07; month 34; to be completed

29. World Wide Web site for information dissemination P05; done

30. Summary report of the Project P0*; month 36; to be completed



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Marianne Broadgate - m.broadgate@macaulay.ac.uk

Last modified: Tue Sep 23 09:56:36 BST 1997