AAIR Project No PL 94-2392
SILVICULTURAL STRATEGIES FOR PREDICTING DAMAGE TO FORESTS FROM WIND, FIRE AND SNOW:
INTEGRATING TREE, SITE AND STAND PROPERTIES WITH GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS TO EVALUATE OPTIONS FOR FOREST MANAGEMENT
Contents: Deliverables aimed both by individual tasks and by each
participants, and deliverables and milestones aimed as whole project within
1995-1997. Updated 20th September, 1997.
1. TASK DELIVERABLES
Task 1: Project Planning
Participants: 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07
1. Sub-task 1 provides formally documented details of what information is
required where, by whom and by when, with details on data transfer protocols
and terminology. done
2. A Product Description is produced for each component Task of the
project. done
3. Documentation on data standards for transfer of textual, statistical and
digital data; on data conversion and communications and on the nature of
communications between Participants (for example, file transfer protocol across
Internet) and data formats. done
4. Sub-task 1.2 provides guidance on the levels of certainty required and
anticipated for and from each Task in the project. done
Task 2: Quantification of Component Factors Controlling Snow, Wind and Fire Damage
Participants: 01, 02, 03, 04, 06, 07
1. Wood strength properties of spruce, Scots pine and birch in relation to
wind and snow damage, and silvicultural practices. P02;
done
2. Data base of all available tree pulling experiments in agreed format.
P04, P01; done
3. Method for applying results of static pulling experiments to the
understanding of damage due to dynamic loading. P08;
P04, done
4. Method for accounting for the effects of root fatigue following
repetitive loading. P02/P08; done
5. Pure spectral signature data set for fire risk. P03, done
Task 3: Tree-level Models to Predict Circumstances for Damage
Participants: 01, 03, 04, and 07
1. Mathematical relationships to calculate the critical wind speed and snow
loading required to damage individual trees. These relationships will be
dependent on tree species, tree characteristics and site characteristics.
P01, P04, P07;done
2. LAI estimation models. P03; done
Task 4: Defining Stand-level Variability to Permit Application of Tree-level Models
Participants: 01, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07
1. Methods for incorporating and variability into overall model and to
modify relationships developed for single trees. P04;
done
2. A method for describing variation in tree heights across stands.
P05; month 25; done
3. Method for spectral unmixing of tree canopy and understorey
spectroradiometer signals. P03; month 28;
done
Task 5: Regional-level Snow, Wind and Fire Risk Models
Participants: 01, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07
1. A working method for predicting wind and snow at regional levels.
P04, P05; month 24; done
2. Error estimates for wind and snow predictions P04; P05;done
3. Spatial datasets and geographic database for each site. P01, P03, P04; done
4. Satellite imagery prepared for use in Task 6 P01;
done
5. Fuel type maps P03; done
6. Maps of vegetation structure for test sites P03;
done
7. Fuel hazard maps P03; month 36; to be completed
month 33
8. Regional level snow, wind and fire risk models P01,
P03, P04, P07; to be completed month 33-34. Snow and
wind done.
Task 6: Integrating Components from Tree/Stand Regional-level to Produce a
Unified risk Model
Participants: 01, 05, 07
The output from Task 6 is a framework for the component models to be
selected and run on available data. An output will be a means for running the
models and testing them in Task 7. Further, one output will be an integrated
system of GIS and wind damage month 33; to be
completed
Task 7: Testing models against Independent Data and Outlining Implications for Silvicultural Strategies
Participants: 01, 03, 04, 06, 07
1. Statement of success of models P0*; month 33; to be
completed
2. Recommendations for improving the models P0*; to be
completed month 33-34
3. Limitations of the extent of validity of models P0*; to be completed month 33-36
4. Example of damage minimising strategy P0*; to be completed month 33-36
TASK 8: Final Products, Documentation and Identification of New Opportunities
Participants: 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07
Procedures to implement the research findings in selection silvicultural
strategies in different countries, pieces of software, final reports of special
tasks, final report of the total project. month 36; to be
completed
2. PARTICIPANT DELIVERABLES done or to be completed
within 30 months
Participant 01:
1. Formatted added tree pulling database to the existing database done
2. Values for the critical parameters required to support the improvement
of existing mechanistic model from tree pulling experiments and measurements of
wind speed and tree movement done
3. Improved mechanistic model for wind and snow damage for single trees
done
4. Relationships for how wind loading on trees depends on the trees
position within a stand to distance from stand edge, width of upwind gaps, tree
density and tree height done
5. Compilation of geographical database
done
6. Integration of wind and snow damage model with GIS, standwise risk assessment of wind and snow damage for the test areas in Finland
month 32, to be completed
7. Satellite image based method for detecting wind damage done
8. Evaluation of the risk model in Finnish test site month 36, to be completed within 33
PARTICIPANT 02:
1. Data sets and correlations on crown architecture and taper indices linked to wind damage for Spruce and Scots pine for calibrating models
done.
2. Data sets and correlations in basic wood properties between trees which
have been broken, uprooted and those which are still standing for calibrating
models done.
3. Data sets of turning moments in spruce trees during storm conditions in
relation to wind speed and soil pore water pressure for calibrating models
month 27; to be completed.
4. Analysis of the above data in terms of prevailing silvicultural
practices month 27; done.
PARTICIPANT 03:
1. Fuel type maps done.
2. Maps of vegetation structure for test sites done.
3. Fuel hazard maps month 36; to be
completed.
4. Regional level fire risk models month 36; to be
completed.
PARTICIPANT 06:
1. Data for vegetation characteristics controlling fire damage done
2. Data for preparation of knowledge base for fuel hazard mapping done
PARTICIPANT 04:
1. Tree pulling database already available to agreed format done
2. Empirical mathematical relationships for critical wind speed required to
damage single trees done
3. Mathematical relationships relating tree position in stand to wind
loading done
4. Recommended method for calculating extreme wind speed probability in
complex terrain done
5. Wind Monitoring Areas database in agreed format
done
6. Assessment of the success of the wind risk component of the overall
model under British conditions month 33; to be
completed
7. Tree height surfaces from digital photogrammetry - a method written up
as a paper done
PARTICIPANT 05:
1. Formally documented details of what information is required where by
whom and by when, with details on data transfer protocols and terminology. A
product description is produced for each component Task of the project.
Documentation on data standards for textual, statistical and digital data
done
2. Guidance on the levels of certainty required and anticipated for and
from each task done
3. Derived height dataset of test forest stand in the U.K. done
4. Derived wind and snow climatology surfaces
done
5. Geographical database for test sites monitor
area in the U.K. done
6. Literature review of available digital data relevant to the study
done
7. Framework for the component models to be selected and run on available
data ; done
8. A World Wide Web site for dissemination of project result month
36; to be completed
9. A report on the uncertainty estimates for risk maps for
each test site month 30; to be completed
PARTICIPANT 07:
1. Tree characteristics data base on wind and snow damage to agreed format
done
2. Mathematical relationships predicting wind and snow damage to single
trees done
3. Mathematical relationships for wind and snow damage variability within
stands done
4. Formatted Monitoring Area database done
5. Assessment of the wind and snow risk component of the overall model in
Swedish conditions done
3. WHOLE PROJECT
3.1. MILESTONES
1. Design plan for project done
2. Value of basic wood properties P02;
done
3. Formatted tree pulling database P04, P01;
done
4. Knowledge base information system P0*;
done
5. Tree characteristics data base on snow damage P07; done
6. End of field data collection for fire risk model P03; done
7. Spatial datasets and geographic database for each site P01, P03, P04, P05; done
8. Formatted Monitoring Area database P0*;
done
9. Height surface for UK test site P05;
done
10. Mathematical relationships for wind and snow damage for single trees
P01, P04, P07; done
11. A working method for predicting wind and snow at regional levels
P04; P07; done
12. Agreed method for predicting wind speed linking to extreme wind
climatology P04; done
13. Framework for component models P05;
done
14. Finalized knowledge base system for fuel hazard mapping P03; to be completed month 33-34
15. Regional level snow, wind and fire risk models P01, P03, P04, P07; month 34; to be completed
16. Integration of mechanistic wind and snow damage model with GIS,
standwise risk assessment of wind and snow damage for the test areas in Finland
P01; month 32; to be completed
17. End the setup of spectral unmixing methodology P03; done
18. Assessment of the wind damage model against detected wind damage under
Finnish conditions P01; month 29; to be completed
32-33
19. Assessment of the wind risk component of the overall model under
British conditions P04; month 33; to be
completed
20. Assessment of the snow and wind risk component of the overall model
under Swedish conditions P07; done
21. End of fire risk model generation, conclusion of risk model test
month 34, P03; to be completed
22. Assessment of the fire risk component of the overall model under
Portuguese conditions P03; month 33; to be
completed
23. Error estimates for wind and snow predictions P04;
month 30; to be completed 32-33
24. Fuel type maps P03; month 36; done
25. Maps of vegetation structure for test sites P03;
month 36; to be completed month 33-34
26. Fuel hazard maps P03; month 36; to be completed
month 33-34
27. World Wide Web site for information dissemination P05; done
28. Summary report of the Project P0*; month 36; to be
completed
3.2. DELIVERABLES
1. Design plan for project P05; done
2. Formatted tree pulling database P01, P04;
done
3. Tree characteristics data base on snow damage
done
4. Spatial datasets and geographic database for each site P0*, done
5. Formatted Monitoring Area database P0*;
done
6. Height surface for UK test sites P05;
done
7. Mathematical relationships for wind and snow damage for single trees
P01, P04, P07; done
8. A working method for predicting wind and snow at regional levels
P05; done
9. Agreed method for predicting wind speed and linking to extreme wind
climatology P04; done
10. Framework for component models P05;
done
11. Pure spectral signature data set P03;
done
12. LAI models P03; done
13. Geographic data sets for study areas P01, P03,
P04, P05; done
14. Integration of components from Tree/Stand Regional Level for a unified
risk model P0*; month 36; to be completed
15. Spectral unmixing methodology P03;
done
16. Assessment of the success of the wind and snow damage model under
Finnish conditions P01; month 32; to be
completed
17. Functional/structural vegetation classification P03; done
18. Detected wind damages under Finnish conditions P01; done
19. Regional classification of fuel types P03; month
28; to be completed
20. Assessment of the wind risk component of the overall model under
British conditions P04; month 33; to be
completed
21. Assessment of the snow and wind risk component of the overall model
under Swedish conditions P07; done
22. Assessment of the success of the fire risk component of the overall
model under Portuguese conditions P03; month 33; to be
completed
23. Knowledge based system for fuel hazard mapping P03; month 32; to be completed
24. Error estimates for wind and snow predictions P0*;
month 36; to be completed
25. Fuel type maps P03; done
26. Maps of vegetation structure for test sites P03;
done
27. Fuel hazard maps P03; month 32; to be
completed
28. Regional level snow, wind and fire risk models P01, P03, P04, P07; month 34; to be completed
29. World Wide Web site for information dissemination P05; done
30. Summary report of the Project P0*; month 36; to be
completed
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Last modified: Tue Sep 23 09:56:36 BST 1997