• Summary & Conclusion
• part 1
• part 2
• part 3
• part 4
• sitemap

THE STATE OF SCOTLAND'S FARMED ENVIRONMENT 2005

10. SCOTTISH AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE

PAST AND FUTURE

Accelerated climate change over the late 20 th century is widely accepted as being a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) . Scotland ’s mean annual temperature rose by 1.1 o C between 1860 and the present. The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) used a global climate model to forecast over the next 100 years. Their Climate Change Scenarios report (Fuller et al., 2002) showed that by 2080 sea levels are forecast to rise by as much as 60cm around Scotland, whilst summers may become drier and warmer and snowfall could decrease by up to 90%. In July 2003, the British Irish Council published climate change scenarios for the Scottish islands, including the Orkney Islands , the Western Isles and the Shetland Isles. The computer model used in the UKCIP scenarios is too coarse to show these islands, so a new model was developed. This indicated that by 2080 annual average temperatures will increase by as much as 1.8C in the Western Isles, 2C in the Orkney Islands and 2.2C in the Shetland Isles. Rainfall in summer might decrease by 22% in the Western Isles, 27% in the Orkney Islands and 19% in the Shetland Isles. Average snowfall could decrease by 89% and sea levels rise by up to 69 cm around all three islands. These changes could have both direct and indirect impacts on Scotland and there is clearly a need to examine the role of agriculture and forestry in mitigating them.

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