Sub-tasks 6.1 and 6.2 Integrating the component models and Scale and Error Issues
The demonstration which was set up in the first 6 months of the reporting
year allowed several issues to be identified and explored by the project group.
This demonstration involved the formal documentation of selected models through
the web metadata forms, and trial exchanges of data and models between
participants in different countries. The issues arising from this exchange,
together with the success of the web, have permitted the formulation of a
prototype Integration Framework during the October meeting in Umea. These plans
will be implemented on the WWW over the next six month period so that a working
prototype can be discussed at the next project meeting. Scale and error studies
explored using the models will be an important component in the prototype.
Sub-tasks 6.1 and 6.2 Integrating the component models and Scale and Error Issues
To initiate the integration of component models and datasets from the
project, it was agreed that a demonstration should be undertaken, to be
completed as a first stage. The purposes of the demonstration were to test
inter-participant links and the method of information elicitation proposed as
part of the integration framework. The demonstration served several further
purposes by addressing the conceptual and practical issues of applying models
to different data in other countries at varying scales, and of developing
understanding between participants as to the data and models available in the
different countries. Furthermore the results provided a means of discussing, as
a group, the performance of the models and the quantification of risk
assessment.
The demonstrator results and comments from participants about the various
integration issues were used to develop the framework further into plans for a
prototype system. These plans were presented to participants before the Umea
meeting, and were critically discussed during this meeting. Participants
presented their view of integration and particularly means of presenting the
error and scale issues associated with their models and their integration with
other models. Thus the framework plans were modified according to these
comments and a timetable agreed for implementation of a prototype. This
prototype would be completed in time for the next project meeting in April and
would provide a basis for further structured discussion of model integration.
Information continues to be widely documented and disseminated at regular
intervals via electronic and paper media, and through inter institutional
visits.
Sub-tasks 6.1 and 6.2 Integrating the component models and Scale and Error Issues
A formal documentation process was implemented to provide information and
guidelines for valid model application and data use. Information was elicited
from participants via two forms which can be accessed and completed
interactively through the World Wide Web Site. Both forms have been carefully
prepared so that they are comprehensive but straighforward to complete. The
forms emphasise important information for the integration such as scale and
resolution, model scope and limitations, and copyright details. Information
from these forms is being used to assess the compatibility of scales between
models and data, and between data for different countries. It also provides
information to explore the tolerance of models to different types of data
input, the suitability of data from different countries as input to models, the
scope of the models, and the validity of model output results. In the
short-term, the forms have provided an effective means of exchanging
information between participants for the purpose of the demonstration
preparation. In the long-term they will facilitate complete documentation of
the project.
A subset of models and data was selected for the short time period under
consideration. A matrix of model runners and data providers was derived to
spread the work as evenly as possible so that no one group was over-burdened.
The links addressed the three damage types equally, involved most of the
participants, and capitalised on existing data and models which were
sufficiently developed and immediately available. Discussion of the
demonstrator results was extremely profitable for the whole group and increased
understanding of the models and allowed the issues to be identified and
explored. These results formed a basis for planning a prototype, web-based
integration framework which was formulated prior to the October meeting in
Sweden.
Plans for the prototype web interface were finalised at the last project
meeting and will be implemented over the next six months. The prototype will
serve to demonstrate how the project components can be integrated and
presented, and will facilitate further, more detailed discussions during the
March project meeting in Aberdeen. Contributions from various participants have
been timetabled over the next few months. These contributions comprise maps,
the results of model runs, and silvicultural information and are being sent to
MLURI where the prototype will be developed using web interface tools.
An important component of the web interface is the presentation of error and scale issues and their implications to potential model users. MLURI is implementing several approaches to investigating error and accuracy issues together with other project participants. The means by which this information should be imparted to those accessing the integrated framework will be discussed in some detail in March.
Task 8
The WWW site is serving as a valuable means of information collation and
dissemination both between project participants and to the wider scientific
community. The WWW site currently facilitates participant input via web forms,
which have been carefully devised to elicit clear and concise information about
the data and models being used within the project. These are proving
successful, both in terms of collaborative communication, and as input to the
integration of component data and models in Task 6.
Dissemination of scientific results is being effectively achieved via journal and conference papers, presentations made to institute visitors from the UK overseas, and by distribution of the project leaflet.
Sub-tasks 6.1 and 6.2 Integrating the component models and Scale and Error Issues
A formal documentation process was implemented to provide information and
guidelines for valid model application and data use. Information was elicited
from participants via two forms which can be accessed and completed
interactively through the World Wide Web Site. Both forms have been carefully
prepared so that they are comprehensive but straighforward to complete. The
forms emphasise important information for the integration such as scale and
resolution, model scope and limitations, and copyright details. Information
from these forms is being used to assess the compatibility of scales between
models and data, and between data for different countries. It also provides
information to explore the tolerance of models to different types of data
input, the suitability of data from different countries as input to models, the
scope of the models, and the validity of model output results. In the
short-term, the forms have provided an effective means of exchanging
information between participants for the purpose of the demonstration
preparation. In the long-term they will facilitate complete documentation of
the project.
A subset of models and data was selected for the short time period under
consideration. A matrix of model runners and data providers was derived to
spread the work as evenly as possible so that no one group was over-burdened.
The links addressed the three damage types equally, involved most of the
participants, and capitalised on existing data and models which were
sufficiently developed and immediately available. Discussion of the
demonstrator results was extremely profitable for the whole group and increased
understanding of the models and allowed the issues to be identified and
explored. These results formed a basis for planning a prototype, web-based
integration framework which was formulated prior to the October meeting in
Sweden.
Plans for the prototype web interface were finalised at the last project
meeting and will be implemented over the next six months. The prototype will
serve to demonstrate how the project components can be integrated and
presented, and will facilitate further, more detailed discussions during the
March project meeting in Aberdeen. Contributions from various participants have
been timetabled over the next few months. These contributions comprise maps,
the results of model runs, and silvicultural information and are being sent to
MLURI where the prototype will be developed using web interface tools.
An important component of the web interface is the presentation of error and scale issues and their implications to potential model users. MLURI is implementing several approaches to investigating error and accuracy issues together with other project participants. The means by which this information should be imparted to those accessing the integrated framework will be discussed in some detail in March.
Task 8
The WWW site is serving as a valuable means of information collation and
dissemination both between project participants and to the wider scientific
community. The WWW site currently facilitates participant input via web forms,
which have been carefully devised to elicit clear and concise information about
the data and models being used within the project. These are proving
successful, both in terms of collaborative communication, and as input to the
integration of component data and models in Task 6.
Dissemination of scientific results is being effectively achieved via
journal and conference papers, presentations made to institute visitors from
the UK overseas, and by distribution of the project leaflet.
Sub-tasks 6.1 and 6.2 Integrating the component models and Scale and Error Issues
The completed metadata and metamodel forms are on the WWW site and have
been accessed by all of the groups involved via a matrix interface. All forms
have been completed for the demonstrator and the metainformation is available
for use by participants on the project WWW pages. Forms have also been
completed for datasets and models which are not involved in the demonstration.
The prototype system plan for an integrated unified risk model was conceived
using the information from the forms and the results from the demonstrator.
This plan was modified and approved during the October meeting after
consultation with the project group.
The prototype comprises several components. Firstly there is a demonstrator
unit which incorporates worked examples of risk assessment using a suite of
models for each damage type run on selected areas. The user will be introduced
to the characteristics of the particular area and then taken through the stages
involved in deriving the risk assessment. This will involve illustrating the
error and validity aspects of model application, tree and climate model
integration, and the consequences of using inappropriate spatial scales or poor
quality data. The demonstration will be made as interactive as possible to give
the user a "feel" for the model capabilities and the use of models as
an experience to help understand the system for decision support, rather than a
set of calculations which give definitive results. This section will also
introduce the concepts of silviculture and its effect on risk for different
damage types.
The user will then be able to access more detailed information about the
models and the different strategies which have been used to address risk
assessment within the project. Access will be possible through a variety of
routes. Current plans propose that the geographic and data space of interest be
defined so that the system can guide the user to particular model suites which
are of most relevance. The user may also wish to access models according to the
modelling approaches which have been used (e.g. mechanistic versus logistic).
The user will be presented with a complete description of the model and
appropriate data. Information from the metamodel forms will be presented in a
way that is more digestible than the forms themselves, and links will be made
to the metadata forms and the European data sets report where relevant. It was
felt particularly important to portray the issues of data quality and the
limitations of model applicability to reduce the possibility of model misuse.
It was thought that this might be best achieved through worked examples. Parts
of the interface will facilitate simulated interactions with the models to
allow users to get a better feel for how they operate.
Sub-task 6.1 and 6.2 Integrating the Component Models and Scale and Error Issues
It was important to avoid compressing all the integration issues and
software development into the last few months of the project. Many of the
issues can be identified, and skeletal framework plans developed, at an early
stage. Prototyping and framework development can progress in stages through
consultation with all participants. Documentation of the models and data is
particularly important to provide structured information to participants which
will ensure effective integration, mutual understanding between participants of
different national and regional datasets, models and damage issues. This
strategy can then evolve to impart such knowledge to potential model users.
Prototyping is a proven method of system development and has been adopted for
the development of the unified risk model interface.
Sub-tasks 6.1 and 6.2 Integrating the component models and Scale and Error Issues
Dissemination of information concerning Task 6 has been achieved very
effectively within the project group by utilising personal email, the mailing
list and the website, with the occasional telephone call and fax. To date no
other dissemination has occurred, but after formal presentation of the results
of the demonstration to EC representatives in Brussels, many of the results
(particularly the metamodel and metadata forms, which will be useful for other
projects striving towards similar goals), will be publicised on the WWW project
pages and will eventually lead to published papers towards the end of the
project period.
Sub-task 6.1 Integrating the component models
The integration of such a wide variety of models (statistical, mechanistic,
logistic, regional, tree scale) and data (Pan-European to wood property scale
from many different countries) on such a large collaborative is a major task
which requires a simple yet robust framework. The methods described above
appear to be working effectively towards facilitating this integration, but
many of the details still need to be resolved. Many of the issues should be
identified when the demonstration is complete, and discussions at the next
project meeting should resolve many of the problems and identify the next
stages towards integration.
Sub-task 6.2 Scale Issues and Error Propagation
The results from the scale investigations will provide a vital link for the
integration of models and data which will ensure the validity of the output.
They will also help to determine the optimum scales for model inupt which will
help to focus on particular scales and resolutions. This will economise on time
and money spent on data since the additional cost of obtaining more detailed
data will be unnecessary if more detail is not required.
STORMS Project Group 1996 Integrating tree and environmental models using
GIS to develop silvicultural strategies for minimising forest damage. GIS
Research UK Conference Proceedings, April 1996 (Poster presentation).