PREDICTING RECOVERY IN ACIDIFIED FRESHWATERS BY THE YEAR 2010, AND BEYOND

Contract EVK1-1999-00087 - RECOVER:2010

Part of the 'Sustainable Management and Quality of Water'

Ecosystem Functioning

Directorate General Research

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THE REGIONS

RESULTS

A Review of Abatement Strategies
and National Emission Ceilings

Contribution of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) to the RECOVER2010 project

 

Wolfgang Schöpp, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont

 

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION

1

2. METHODOLOGY

2

3. THE SHARED BASELINE (SHAIR) EMISSION SCENARIO UP TO THE YEAR 2020

3

 

Energy Projections

3

 

Projections of Agricultural Livestock

4

 

Emission Control Policies

4

 

Emissions Resulting from Current Legislation and the

Gothenburg Protocol

5

4. THE PROPOSED EU NEC DIRECTIVE

9

 

The Commission's Proposal

9

 

Comparison with the ShAIR Scenario

10

 

The Common Position of the EU Council on the

NEC Directive

12

5. THE APPROXIMATION OF EMISSION STANDARDS IN THE ACCESSION COUNTRIES

TO THE EU STANDARDs

14

REFERENCES

 

16

 

 

1. Introduction

RECOVER2010 aims at an assessment of the dynamics of acidification processes in the environment. Acidification of ecosystems is a long process extending over time periods of several decades, significantly exceeding the time window for which actual monitoring data are available. Consequently, an attempt is made to construct sufficiently long time series of sulfur and nitrogen deposition over Europe based on model calculations. An obvious input for calculating acid deposition is the temporal development of emissions throughout Europe.

As a first contribution to the RECOVER2010 project, IIASA' estimated emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3) for the time period 1990 to 2020. This analysis is based on the latest projection of economic activities and energy consumption developed within the Shared Analysis Project of DG Energy of the European Commission and includes emission control measures that are implied by the proposal for a Directive on National Emission Ceilings (COM(99) 125). Finally, the analysis evaluates the Common Position reached by the Council on the proposed Emission Ceilings Directive and the impacts of emissions if Central and Eastern European countries, when joining the European Union, would harmonize their emission related legislation with that of the EU.

 

2. Methodology

The study uses IIASA's integrated assessment model RAINS (Amann et al., 1999b) and its databases for estimating future emissions. The RAINS model provides a consistent framework for the analysis of emission reduction strategies in the European context. RAINS focuses on acidification, eutrophication and tropospheric ozone. The pressures that affect environmental indicators relevant for the above impacts are caused by the emissions of gaseous pollutants to the atmosphere, i.e., sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3). The major sources of SO2 and NOx emissions are fuel combustion in power plants, other industry, transport and in the tertiary (residential and commercial) sectors. Ammonia emissions originate mainly from agricultural activities (livestock, fertilizer use). RAINS comprises modules for emission generation (with databases on current and future economic activities, energy consumption levels, fuel characteristics, etc.), for emission control options and costs, for atmospheric dispersion of pollutants and for environmental sensitivities (i.e., databases on critical loads). A description of the individual modules of RAINS and its database, together with a simplified version of the impact module that enables on-line calculations of the environmental impacts of user-defined emission scenarios is available on the Internet (www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains).

The RAINS model incorporates databases on economic activities relevant for the calculations of emission levels. These include forecasts of energy consumption, data on agricultural activities (development of livestock), and other types of aggregated data on future economic development (GDP, industrial production). Data is stored for 38 regions in Europe and the information is rather detailed. For instance, the energy database of RAINS distinguishes 22 categories of fuel use in six economic sectors (Bertok et al., 1993). The time horizon extends from the year 1990 up to 2020. For the year 1990 emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC are estimated based on information collected by the CORINAIR inventory of the European Environment Agency (EEA, 2000) and on national information. Options and costs for controlling emissions of the various substances are represented in the model by considering the characteristic technical and economic features of the most important emission reduction options and technologies. For sulfur and nitrogen compounds atmospheric dispersion processes over Europe are modeled based on results of the European EMEP model developed at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (Barret and Sandnes, 1996).

The RAINS model can be operated in the 'scenario analysis' mode, i.e., following the pathways of emissions from their sources to their environmental impacts. In this case the model provides estimates of regional costs and environmental benefits of pre-defined emission control strategies. Alternatively, an 'optimization mode' is available. The optimization capability of RAINS enables the development of multi-pollutant, multi-effect pollution control strategies. Several strategies have been analyzed when preparing the proposal of the Emission Ceilings Directive for the EU-15 and Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on the Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (Amann et al., 1998, 1999a, UN/ECE, 1999a).

RAINS estimates current and future levels of SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3 emissions based on information provided by the energy and economic scenario as exogenous input, and on emission factors derived from the CORINAIR emission inventory and national sources. Emission estimates are performed on a disaggregated level that is determined by the details available on economic, energy and agricultural projections. Although there is a large variety of options to control emissions, an integrated assessment model focusing on the pan-European scale has to restrict itself to a manageable number of typical abatement options in order to estimate future emission control potentials and costs. Consequently, RAINS identifies for each emission source category a limited list of characteristic control options and extrapolates the current operating experience to future years, taking into account the most important country- and situation-specific circumstances modifying the applicability and costs of the techniques. A list of emission control technologies included in RAINS, together with a description of the methodology adopted to estimate emission control costs and the parameters of the individual control technologies (efficiencies, unit costs) can be found in Cofala and Syri (1998a,b), Klimont et al. (1998), Klaassen (1991), and Klimont (1998).

3. The Shared Baseline (ShAIR) Emission Scenario up to the Year 2020

The baseline scenario compiles information available on energy projection, agricultural livestock and emission control policies as of October 2000. A more detailed description of all the underlying input data can be found in Cofala et. al. (2000).

Energy Projections

This study relies on energy projections until the year 2020 supplied from a variety of sources. For the EU-15, projections are based on detailed work of the National Technical University of Athens for DG Energy within the Shared Analysis Project (EC, 1999b). Using a more generic method, the Shared Analysis project has also delivered scenarios for selected accession countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania). For other non-EU countries, energy projections are based on data submitted by the governments to the UN/ECE and published in the UN/ECE Energy Database (UN/ECE, 1996). For the year 2010, these projections were updated by national experts in the process of reviewing the input data to the scenario calculations conducted for the negotiations on the Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication, and Ground-level Ozone under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (UN/ECE, 1999a). IIASA extrapolated the sectoral trends to the year 2020, preserving physical consistency of the energy flows within each country.

For the EU-15, the baseline energy scenario projects an increase in total energy consumption of 20 percent between 1990 and 2020. The demand for coal and oil decreases by 23 and 3 percent respectively. This decline is compensated by a rapid increase in the demand for natural gas (84 percent until 2020) and other fuels (nuclear, hydropower, renewable energy - plus 19 percent). Despite a continued improvement in the fuel economy of new cars and trucks, a 30 percent increase in total fuel demand is expected. For the accession countries, the scenario expects an increase in total energy demand by 17 percent. The demand for coal decreases by 34 percent and the demand for gas increases by 100 percent compared to the 1990 level. Fuel demand for mobile sources is projected to increase by 58 percent, mainly due to the rapid growth in private car use. For the other non-accession and non-EU countries, the energy projections imply an eight- percent drop in total primary energy consumption, mainly due to the a sharp decrease in energy use that occurred in the last 10 years in the countries of the former Soviet Union. Continued economic restructuring should allow further economic development while keeping the energy demand until 2020 below the 1990 level. The consumption of coal and oil by stationary sources is predicted to decrease by about 40 and 42 percent, respectively. Consumption of natural gas increases by 8 percent. Similar to the two previous groups of countries, the demand for transport fuels increases 26 percent over the period 1990-2020. This increase is particularly fast after the year 2010. In spite of a rapid increase in car ownership, the increase in the demand for motor fuels until 2010 is very limited because of a decrease in material and transport intensities in the former 'planned economy' countries. Thus, until 2010 the demand for goods transport remains below the 1990 level.

It must be stressed that the energy scenarios for individual countries are exogenous inputs to the RAINS model and does not specifically change due to constraints on emissions imposed by RAINS calculations.

 

Projections of Agricultural Livestock

Agricultural activities are a major source of ammonia (NH3) emissions, which in turn make a contribution to the acidification and eutrophication problem. Next to specific measures directed at limiting the emissions from livestock farming, the development of animal stock is an important determinant of future emissions. IIASA has compiled a set of forecasts on European agricultural activities (Table 4.5), based on national information as well as on the modeling work for the EU member states done with the ECAM (European Community Agricultural Model) model (Folmer et al., 1995). Forecasts used in this study until 2010 are identical with the forecasts used in the work on the EU National Emission Ceilings Directive (compare Amann et al., 1999a). The above study also includes forecasts of fertilizer consumption for the EU-15 based on a study by the European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association (EFMA, 1996a,b) (Table 4.6). Since projections for 2020 were not available, activity levels for that year were assumed to be identical with those for 2010.

Emission Control Policies

The scenario captures emission control measures according to the present legislation in each country, thereby simulating the likely impacts of today's emission abatement regulations for the period after 2010. In order to reflect the 'dual-track' nature of European policy (emission standards for specific source categories and ceilings on national total emissions), the scenario first analyzes both approaches and selects then in a second step the more stringent result. The impacts of current (i.e., already in place or decided by the end of 1999) legislation were explored for each country for 2010 and 2020 and then compared with internationally announced target ceilings on national emissions for the year 2010. Such emission ceilings were taken from the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-Level Ozone (UN/ECE, 1999a).

For SO2 and NOx, the scenario is based on a detailed inventory of regulations on emission controls, taking into account the legislation in the individual European countries, the relevant Directives of the European Union (in particular the Large Combustion Plant Directive - LCPD (88/609/EEC), the Directives on Sulfur in Liquid Fuels (Directives 98/70/EC and 1999/32/EC) as well as the obligatory clauses regarding emission standards from the protocols under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. For instance, the Second Sulfur Protocol (UN/ECE, 1994a) requires emission control according to 'Best Available Technology' (BAT) for new plants. It also requires the reduction of the sulfur content in gas oil for stationary sources to 0.2 percent and to 0.05 percent if used as diesel fuel for road vehicles. An inventory of national and international emission standards in Europe can be found in Bouscaren & Bouchereau (1996). In addition, information on power plant emission standards has been taken from the survey of the IEA Coal Research (McConville, 1997). For countries of Central and Eastern Europe the environmental standards database developed by the Central European University (CEU, 1996) has also been used. All this information was updated based on recently published sources (e.g., UN/ECE. 1999b).

For the control of NOx and VOC emissions from mobile sources, the scenario considers the implementation of the current UN/ECE legislation as well as country-specific standards if stricter. For the Member States of the European Union the current EU standards for new cars, light commercial vehicles and heavy duty vehicles (HDV) have been taken into account: the Directives 70/220/EEC as amended by 96/69/EC, and 88/77/EEC as amended by 96/1/EC; see McArragher (1994). Additionally, the scenario takes into account Directive 98/70/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 1998 relating to the quality of petrol and diesel and amending Council Directive 93/12/EEC and Directive 98/69/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 1998 relating to measures to be taken against air pollution from motor vehicles and amending Council Directive 70/220/EEC. The pace of the implementation of these measures depends on the turnover of vehicle stock and has been based on modeling work performed for the Auto/Oil 1 study.

For heavy duty vehicles, the post-2005 standards reflecting the Common Position reached in December 1998 between the European Parliament and the Council on amending the Directive 88/77/EEC (on the approximation of laws of the Member States relating to the measures to be taken against the emissions of gaseous and particulate pollutants from diesel engines for use in vehicles) were introduced. The implementation of these standards is assumed in two stages (2005/2006 and 2008/2009).

Emissions Resulting from Current Legislation and the Gothenburg Protocol

Table.1, Table 2 and Table 3 present the "Current Legislation" (CLE) emissions achieved by the implementation of current standards in each country as estimated by the RAINS model and compare them with the obligations of the Gothenburg Protocol. In many cases the CLE emissions (i.e., those derived from the projected economic development and the present set of emission and fuel standards) are lower than the obligations of the Gothenburg Protocol. There are, however, other cases where present legislation would not achieve the Gothenburg target given the projected economic development and where additional measures will be necessary. For calculating the cost of additional measures it has been assumed that the emission ceilings will be achieved by the most cost-efficient control options that are still available in a country (according to the RAINS emission reduction cost curves).

Countries with stringent legislation expect a general decline of emissions between 2010 and 2020, mainly due to progressing replacement of existing plants with new equipment with stricter emission standards. For instance, in the EU-15 the CLE emissions of NOx decrease from 6.7 million tons in 2010 to 5.3 million tons in 2020. Similarly, the emissions of SO2 decrease from 4.9 to 3.4 million tons.

For the non-EU countries, the development of emissions is strongly depending on the stringency of emission standards on the one side and the volume of economic activity on the other. Continuing shift from high-sulfur coal to cleaner fuels and further penetration of flue gas desulfurization will lead to further cuts in SO2 emissions after 2010, while NOx emissions may increase due to fast growth in private transport and the absence of emission regulations for mobile sources in central and eastern European countries.

 

Table.1: Comparison of "Current Legislation" NOx emissions in Europe with emission ceilings from the Gothenburg Protocol (in kilotons).

Country

1990

CLE NOx

Protocol

Ceiling

NOx

ShAIR NOx

2010

2020

2010

2020

Austria

192

98

107

107

98

81

Belgium

351

169

181

181

169

141

Denmark

274

141

127

127

127

105

Finland

276

149

170

170

149

117

France

1867

860

860

860

860

700

Germany

2662

1092

1081

1081

1081

845

Greece

345

342

344

344

342

293

Ireland

113

79

65

65

65

58

Italy

2037

1013

1000

1000

1000

812

Luxembourg

22

10

11

11

10

10

Netherlands

542

247

266

266

247

218

Portugal

303

259

260

260

259

191

Spain

1162

847

847

847

847

623

Sweden

338

189

148

148

148

148

UK

2839

1198

1181

1181

1181

964

Total EU-15

13322

6693

6648

6648

6582

5305

Bulgaria

355

297

266

266

266

266

Czech Rep.

546

312

286

286

286

286

Estonia

84

52

n.a.

n.a.

52

64

Hungary

219

159

198

198

159

184

Latvia

117

85

84

84

84

84

Lithuania

153

98

110

110

98

110

Poland

1217

728

879

879

728

719

Romania

518

458

437

437

437

437

Slovakia

219

132

130

130

130

130

Slovenia

60

57

45

45

45

45

Total accession (**)

3489

2377

2499

2499

2285

2324

Albania

24

36

n.a.

n.a.

36

42

Belarus

402

316

255

255

255

255

Bosnia-H.

80

60

n.a.

n.a.

60

67

Croatia

82

91

87

87

87

87

Norway

220

178

156

156

156

156

Moldova

87

66

90

90

66

64

Russia (*)

3486

2798

2653

2653

2653

2653

Switzerland

163

79

79

79

79

70

FYR Macedonia

39

29

n.a.

n.a.

29

30

Ukraine

1888

1433

1222

1222

1222

1222

Yugoslavia

211

152

n.a.

n.a.

152

163

Total other (**)

6681

5238

4843

4843

4794

4808

TOTAL (***)

25134

15950

15633

15633

15304

14080

Explanations:

(*) For Russia the Protocol specifies only the emission ceilings for the so-called Pollutant Emissions Management Area (PEMA). Values given in the table are for the European part of Russia within the EMEP area as used in the calculations for the preparation of the Protocol.

(**) For calculating totals in columns "Protocol ceiling" the missing values (n.a.) were replaced with higher value of CLE emissions for 2010 or 2020.

(***) TOTAL includes also emissions of SO2 and NOx from sea traffic within the EMEP area.

Table 2: Comparison of "Current Legislation" SO2 emissions in Europe with emission ceilings from the Gothenburg Protocol (in kilotons).

Country

1990

CLE SO2

Protocol

Ceiling

SO2

ShAIR SO2

2010

2020

2010

2020

Austria

93

39

40

39

39

39

Belgium

336

171

152

106

106

106

Denmark

182

146

64

55

55

55

Finland

226

137

128

116

116

116

France

1250

574

454

400

400

400

Germany

5280

518

486

550

518

486

Greece

504

508

439

546

508

439

Ireland

178

119

76

42

42

42

Italy

1679

381

255

500

381

255

Luxembourg

14

8

7

4

4

4

Netherlands

201

76

81

50

50

50

Portugal

343

195

181

170

170

170

Spain

2189

999

405

774

774

405

Sweden

117

65

61

67

65

61

UK

3812

962

587

625

625

587

Total EU-15

16403

4897

3417

4044

3853

3216

Bulgaria

1842

846

465

856

846

465

Czech Rep.

1873

336

295

283

283

283

Estonia

275

111

58

n.a.

111

58

Hungary

913

227

84

550

227

84

Latvia

121

73

129

107

73

107

Lithuania

213

73

72

145

73

72

Poland

3001

1453

739

1397

1397

739

Romania

1331

594

358

918

594

358

Slovakia

548

137

96

110

110

96

Slovenia

200

114

18

27

27

18

Total accession (**)

10315

3964

2312

4504

3742

2279

Albania

72

55

48

n.a.

55

48

Belarus

843

494

440

480

480

440

Bosnia-H.

487

415

387

n.a.

415

387

Croatia

180

70

64

70

70

64

Norway

52

32

32

22

22

22

Moldova

197

117

102

135

117

102

Russia (*)

5012

2344

1864

3902

2344

1864

Switzerland

43

26

25

26

26

25

FYR Macedonia

107

81

70

n.a.

81

70

Ukraine

3706

1506

1041

1457

1457

1041

Yugoslavia

585

269

158

n.a.

269

158

Total other (**)

11284

5408

4231

6912

5335

4221

TOTAL (***)

39167

15434

11125

16624

14094

10880

Explanations:

(*) For Russia the Protocol specifies only the emission ceilings for the so-called Pollutant Emissions Management Area (PEMA). Values given in the table are for the European part of Russia within the EMEP area as used in the calculations for the preparation of the Protocol.

(**) For calculating totals in columns "Protocol ceiling" the missing values (n.a.) were replaced with higher value of CLE emissions for 2010 or 2020.

(***) TOTAL includes also emissions of SO2 and NOx from sea traffic within the EMEP area.

Table 3: Comparison of "Current Legislation" NH3 emissions in Europe with emission ceilings from the Gothenburg Protocol (in kilotons).

Country

1990

CLE NH3

Protocol

Ceiling

NH3

ShAIR NH3

2010

2020

2010

2020

Austria

77

67

67

66

66

66

Belgium

97

96

96

74

74

74

Denmark

122

72

72

69

69

69

Finland

40

31

31

31

31

31

France

810

780

780

780

780

780

Germany

757

571

571

550

550

550

Greece

80

74

74

73

73

73

Ireland

127

130

130

116

116

116

Italy

462

432

432

419

419

419

Luxembourg

7

9

9

7

7

7

Netherlands

233

141

141

128

128

128

Portugal

77

73

73

108

73

73

Spain

352

383

383

353

353

353

Sweden

61

61

61

57

57

57

UK

329

297

297

297

297

297

Total EU-15

3631

3216

3216

3129

3093

3093

Bulgaria

141

126

126

108

108

108

Czech Rep.

107

108

108

101

101

101

Estonia

29

29

29

n.a.

29

29

Hungary

120

137

137

90

90

90

Latvia

43

35

35

44

35

35

Lithuania

80

81

81

84

81

81

Poland

505

541

541

468

468

468

Romania

292

304

304

210

210

210

Slovakia

60

47

47

39

39

39

Slovenia

23

21

21

21

21

21

Total accession (**)

1398

1427

1427

1193

1181

1181

Albania

32

35

35

n.a.

35

35

Belarus

219

163

163

158

158

158

Bosnia-H.

31

23

23

n.a.

23

23

Croatia

40

37

37

30

30

30

Norway

23

21

21

23

21

21

Moldova

47

48

48

42

42

42

Russia (*)

1282

894

894

1179

894

894

Switzerland

72

66

66

63

63

63

FYR Macedonia

17

16

16

n.a.

16

16

Ukraine

729

649

649

592

592

592

Yugoslavia

90

82

82

n.a.

82

82

Total other (**)

2582

2034

2034

2243

1956

1956

TOTAL (***)

7611

6678

6678

6380

6231

6231

Explanations:

(*) For Russia the Protocol specifies only the emission ceilings for the so-called Pollutant Emissions Management Area (PEMA). Values given in the table are for the European part of Russia within the EMEP area as used in the calculations for the preparation of the Protocol.

(**) For calculating totals in columns "Protocol ceiling" the missing values (n.a.) were replaced with higher value of CLE emissions for 2010 or 2020.

(***) TOTAL includes also emissions of SO2 and NOx from sea traffic within the EMEP area.

4 The Proposed EU NEC Directive

The Commission's Proposal

In 1999 the European Commission proposed a Directive on National Emission Ceilings (NEC) for Certain Air Pollutants (COM(99)125) to limit the negative environmental impacts of acidification and ground-level ozone. The numerical values for the emission ceilings for the individual Member States were based on the findings of extensive analysis using the 'Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation' (RAINS) model developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria. In iterative discussions between the Commission, the Member States and interested stakeholders, the RAINS model was used to find the internationally least-cost allocation of emission control measures for sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC) and ammonia (NH3). At the same time, negotiations leading to a new Protocol to "Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone" under the UN/ECE CLRTAP were based on the same approach using the RAINS model as the main tool. The emission ceilings of the Commission's NEC proposal aim at achieving the following environmental targets:

For acidification:

The general target of the EU acidification strategy is to reduce in the year 2010 the area of ecosystems not protected against acidification everywhere by at least 50 percent compared to 1990. This results in about 4.3 million hectares of unprotected ecosystems in the EU15

In the optimization routine, a scenario based on a 95 percent gap closure of the accumulated excess acidity which achieves the 50 percent area gap closure target was implemented. In order to increase the cost-effectiveness of the scenario, so that single ecosystems might not demand excessively expensive measures, some spatial flexibility in achieving the overall target was introduced. A balancing mechanism now allows limited violation of the targets at single grid cells, as long as they are compensated by additional improvements (in terms of accumulated excess acidity) in other grid cells in the same country.

For health-relevant ozone exposure:

The principal interim target for moving towards the environmental long-term objective is a relative reduction of the AOT60 (the surrogate indicator for health-related excess ozone exposure) by two-thirds between 1990 and 2010.

In addition, highest excess ozone in the EU15 is addressed by introducing an absolute ceiling on the AOT60 of 2.9 ppm.hours.

For vegetation-relevant ozone exposure:

The general objective is to reduce the excess AOT40 (the indicator for vegetation-related excess ozone) by one third between 1990 and 2010.

In addition, the highest excess AOT40 in the EU15 is limited to an absolute ceiling of 10.0 ppm.hours.

 

Comparison with the ShAIR Scenario

The ShAIR scenario discussed in Section 3 is compared with the emission ceilings proposed by the European Commission. The two scenarios differ in the assumed levels of future economic activities (represented by different energy demand) as well as in the degree to which emission control measures are implemented. Whereas the EU98 scenario includes the "Business as Usual" energy pathways for the EU-15 (Capros et al., 1997) and the "Official Energy Pathways" for the accession countries (UN/ECE, 1996), the ShAIR energy projection is based on the results of the "Shared Analysis" project (Section 4). The "Shared Analysis" scenarios include projections for the EU and for seven accession countries.

The NEC scenario reflected environmental legislation (i.e., emission and fuel standards and emission ceilings from international treaties) decided or close to decision as of the end of 1997. A range of additional legal acts were introduced in 1998 and 1999, inter alia

In contrast to the NEC scenario, all these amendments are included in the ShAIR scenario.

Modified assumptions about energy development in the accession countries cause a four percent drop in the demand for primary energy. There are also important structural changes in the composition of fuels. Compared with the Official Energy Pathways included in the NEC case, the Shared Analysis scenario assumes 19 percent lower demand for coal, which is compensated by a 23 percent increase of natural gas. There is also an important difference in the demand for liquid fuels in transport sector. In the new ShAIR scenario it is 18 percent lower than in the NEC case. Therefore in general this leads to lower emissions for the ShAIR scenario.

Table 4 compares the differences in the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. For the EU-15, the (controlled) emissions of NOx in 2010 are in the NEC scenario 10 percent lower than in the ShAIR. The difference for SO2 and NH3 is 6, and 8 percent respectively. Lower emissions of ammonia are due to stricter environmental targets adopted in the Commission Proposal. Since the 2010 emissions in the NEC case were already quite reduced compared with the base year (1990) emissions, relative reductions are much lower if compared with 1990 emission levels. For instance, the difference in SO2 emissions between the NEC and the ShAIR is only six percent of 1990 emission level. It is worth noting the change in emissions for Portugal, which was caused by recent revisions of CORINAIR numbers for 1990. Higher base year emissions have also caused the increase of the Protocol ceilings for Portugal.

Also accession countries have lower emissions in the ShAIR scenario. The difference is 13 percent for NOx, 14 percent for percent for SO2, and 17 percent for NH3, respectively. These lower emissions are due to the lower energy demand and to the emission ceilings of the Gothenburg Protocol, which are stricter than the "Current Reduction Plans" at the time when the NEC scenario was developed.

Assumptions about the energy/agricultural development and about current legislation for the other, non-EU countries remained in principle unchanged compared with NEC. Thus the differences in the emission levels are mainly caused by the Gothenburg Protocol. Some Eastern European countries, and in particular in the countries of the former Soviet Union, accepted only higher emission ceilings in the Gothenburg Protocol than what was assumed for the "Current Reduction Plans" in 1997.

 

Table 4: Comparison of the emission estimates for 2010 between the NEC and the latest ShAIR scenarios, kilotons

Country

NOx

SO2

NH3

NEC

ShAIR

NEC

ShAIR

NEC

ShAIR

Austria

91

98

40

39

67

66

Belgium

127

169

76

106

57

74

Denmark

127

127

77

55

71

69

Finland

152

149

116

116

31

31

France

679

860

218

400

718

780

Germany

1051

1081

463

518

413

550

Greece

264

342

546

508

74

73

Ireland

59

65

28

42

123

116

Italy

869

1000

566

381

430

419

Luxembourg

8

10

3

4

7

7

Netherlands

238

247

50

50

104

128

Portugal

144

259

141

170

67

73

Spain

781

847

746

774

353

353

Sweden

152

148

67

65

48

57

UK

1181

1181

497

625

264

297

Total EU-15

5923

6583

3634

3853

2827

3093

 

Bulgaria

297

266

846

846

126

108

Czech Rep.

296

286

366

283

108

101

Estonia

73

52

175

111

29

29

Hungary

198

159

546

227

137

90

Latvia

118

84

104

73

35

35

Lithuania

138

98

107

73

81

81

Poland

879

728

1397

1397

541

468

Romania

458

437

594

594

304

210

Slovakia

132

130

137

110

47

39

Slovenia

36

45

71

27

21

21

Total accession

2625

2285

4343

3741

1429

1182

 

Albania

36

36

55

55

35

35

Belarus

316

255

494

480

163

158

Bosnia-H.

60

60

415

415

23

23

Croatia

91

87

70

70

37

30

Norway

178

156

32

22

21

21

Moldova

66

66

117

117

48

42

Russia

2653

2653

2344

2344

894

894

Switzerland

79

79

26

26

66

63

FYR Macedonia

29

29

81

81

16

16

Ukraine

1433

1222

1488

1457

649

592

Yugoslavia

152

152

269

269

82

82

Total other

5093

4795

5391

5336

2034

1956

 

TOTAL

13641

13663

13368

12930

6290

6231

 

The Common Position of the EU Council on the NEC Directive

In June 2000, the Council of the Environment Ministers reached a Common Position on the Commission's proposal for the NEC Directive (Council of The European Union (2000) 9806/00). While the Directive was generally supported, the Common Position specifies for a number of countries less ambitious emission ceilings than those proposed by the Commission. Emissions of the Common Position are given Table 5 and Table 6. In order to facilitate the assessment of the emission ceilings of the Common Position, these tables contain the differences to REF8 emissions, which are the levels achieved by implementing only current legislation and/or the Gothenburg protocol. The appropriate column (CP-REF8) indicates the additional emission required by the Common Position starting from the level of REF8. These tables also show the differences in emissions between the Common Position and the NEC scenario.

 

Table 5: Emissions of NOx and VOC for the Common Position (CP scenario) (emissions in kilotons, percentage changes relate to 1990)

NOx

VOC

CP

Change

CP-REF8

CP-NEC

CP

Change

CP-REF8

CP-NEC

Austria

103

-46%

0

12

159

-55%

0

30

Belgium

176

-50%

-5

49

139

-63%

-5

37

Denmark

127

-54%

0

0

85

-53%

0

0

Finland

170

-38%

18

18

130

-39%

20

20

France

810

-57%

-48

131

1050

-56%

-50

118

Germany

1051

-61%

-30

0

995

-68%

0

71

Greece

344

0%

0

80

261

-22%

0

88

Ireland

65

-42%

0

6

55

-50%

0

0

Italy

990

-51%

-10

121

1159

-44%

0

197

Luxembourg

11

-50%

1

3

9

-53%

2

3

Netherlands

260

-52%

-6

22

185

-62%

-6

29

Portugal

250

-17%

-5

106

180

-39%

-22

78

Spain

847

-27%

0

66

662

-34%

-7

0

Sweden

148

-56%

0

-4

241

-53%

0

22

UK

1167

-59%

-14

-14

1200

-55%

0

236

EU-15

6519

-51%

-99

597

6510

-54%

-67

929

 

 

Table 6: Emissions of SO2 and NH3 of the Common Position (CP scenario) (emissions in kilotons, percentage changes relate to 1990)

SO2

NH3

CP

Change

CP-REF8

CP-NEC

CP

Change

CP-REF8

CP-NEC

Austria

39

-58%

0

-1

66

-14%

0

-1

Belgium

99

-71%

-7

23

74

-24%

0

17

Denmark

55

-70%

0

-22

69

-43%

0

-2

Finland

110

-51%

-6

-6

31

-23%

0

0

France

375

-70%

-25

157

780

-4%

0

62

Germany

520

-90%

-30

57

550

-27%

0

137

Greece

523

4%

-23

-23

73

-9%

0

-1

Ireland

42

-76%

0

14

116

-9%

0

-7

Italy

475

-72%

-25

-91

419

-9%

0

-11

Luxembourg

4

-71%

0

1

7

0%

0

0

Netherlands

50

-75%

0

0

128

-45%

0

24

Portugal

160

-53%

-10

19

90

17%

17

23

Spain

746

-66%

-28

0

353

0%

0

0

Sweden

67

-44%

0

0

57

-7%

0

9

UK

585

-85%

-40

88

297

-10%

0

33

EU-15

3850

-77%

-194

213

3110

-14%

17

284

 

 

5. The Approximation of Emission Standards in the Accession Countries to the EU Standards

This section explores the potential consequences of a harmonization of national environmental legislation in the accession countries with the EU regulations. Potential accession countries are grouped into 'first wave' (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia) and 'second wave' countries (Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, and Slovak Republic), for which different compliance deadlines were assumed (2003 for the first wave and 2006 for the second wave countries).

The most important pieces of legislation that need to be adopted by the accession countries and that have an effect on the emissions of SO2, NOx and VOC are

In addition, as in the ShAIR scenario, it has been assumed that the emission ceilings from the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on LRTAP need to be achieved by all countries.

Table 7 to Table 8 compare the emissions of SO2, and NOx for the accession (ACC) scenario with those for the ShAIR. Approximation with the EU environmental legislation brings substantial benefits in terms of reduction of emission levels, especially in the longer-run. In 2020, NOx emissions will be 28 percent below the ShAIR level and SO2 12 percent. Since some standards need to be implemented only on new sources, the effects until 2010 are smaller. Nevertheless, even in 2010 NOx emissions are 8 percent and SO2 7 percent below the ShAIR levels. For NH3 emissions it is assumed that they will not be influenced by joining the EU.

 

Table 7: Change in NOx emissions caused by the accession (ACC) scenario, kilotons

Country

1990

2010

2020

ShAIR

ACC

Change

ShAIR

ACC

Change

Bulgaria

355

266

255

-4%

266

179

-33%

Czech Rep.

546

286

286

0%

286

261

-9%

Estonia

84

52

38

-26%

64

26

-59%

Hungary

219

159

134

-16%

184

111

-40%

Latvia

117

84

73

-13%

84

56

-33%

Lithuania

153

98

84

-14%

110

68

-38%

Poland

1217

728

672

-8%

719

562

-22%

Romania

518

437

406

-7%

437

301

-31%

Slovakia

219

130

118

-9%

130

89

-31%

Slovenia

60

45

45

0%

45

27

-41%

Total

3489

2285

2113

-8%

2324

1679

-28%

 

 

Table 8: Change in SO2 emissions caused by the Accession (ACC) scenario, kilotons

Country

1990

2010

2020

ShAIR

ACC

Change

ShAIR

ACC

Change

Bulgaria

1842

846

766

-9%

465

390

-16%

Czech Rep.

1873

283

283

0%

283

283

0%

Estonia

275

111

92

-17%

58

38

-35%

Hungary

913

227

223

-2%

84

79

-6%

Latvia

121

73

43

-42%

107

63

-41%

Lithuania

213

73

47

-36%

72

40

-44%

Poland

3001

1397

1397

0%

739

714

-3%

Romania

1331

594

502

-15%

358

281

-22%

Slovakia

548

110

110

0%

96

92

-3%

Slovenia

200

27

27

0%

18

16

-12%

Total

10315

3742

3490

-7%

2279

1996

-12%

 

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