• Summary & Conclusion
• part 1
• part 2
• part 3
• part 4
• sitemap

THE STATE OF SCOTLAND'S FARMED ENVIRONMENT 2005

10. SCOTTISH AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE

AGRICULTURE, LAND USE CHANGE AND FORESTRY

Estimates of the emissions from agriculture, land-use change and forestry (LUCF) in Scotland suggest that they contribute around 28% of the UK 's total equivalent mass of CO 2 emissions (Table 10.1) . It should be noted that these estimates have high uncertainties of up to +/- 19% (Baggott et al., 2005). Published sources provide conflicting estimates and the ERDC enquiry (Scottish Parliament, 2005) recommended that a comprehensive independent audit of progress under the Scottish climate change programme should be commissioned. Accepting these uncertainties, the available estimates suggest that the contributions from Scottish agriculture to GHG emissions declined by about 13% between 1990 and 2002 in absolute terms whilst those from LUCF increased by about 1.4%. It should be noted that these figures do NOT include the positive contributions to carbon sequestration have been made through forest planting and tree growth in Scotland, and possibly through the less intensive use of agricultural land. These contributions are likely to have occurred in Scotland but the regional GHG inventory figures do not yet include data on them and there is clearly more research needed on life cycle analyses of the main GHCs related to agriculture (i.e. Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide and Ammonia).

Agriculture and forestry directly contribute less than 2% of the GDP of Scotland but they are critical to the environmental economy. In terms of carbon cycling, 28% of Scottish emissions are estimated to result from agriculture and LUCF, only slightly less than from energy supply (32%). Together these sectors account for a disproportionately large volume of the total UK emissions from these sectors. This disproportionate effect is due to the very large volume of organic matter in the soils of Scotland , the high livestock numbers involved in Scottish agriculture, and to the continued expansion of the forested area.

Scottish agriculture, land use change and forestry currently make disproportionately large contributions to UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

Table 10.1: Sectoral greenhouse gas emissions for Scotland 1990-2002